BY MATTHEW ESCANO

In 2002, a team of scientists led by Mathis Wackernagel, an analyst at Redefining Progress, determined that mankind’s consumption surpassed the earth’s regenerative capacity around 1980. This study, published by the U.S. Academy of Sciences, also estimated that the world’s demands in 1999 exceeded the earth’s capacity by 20 percent. Donella and Dennis Meadows, both environmental scientists, argue that in 30 years, we can expect to see a world population of about 7 billion persons, and if the world’s fertility rate does not begin to decline, in 60 years, there will be four people in the world for every one person living today. If their claim holds true, this ever-growing worldwide population will threaten to consume the earth’s resources at a much faster rate.

Lester Brown, an internationally recognized and renowned American environmentalist, points out that these emerging mega-threats have been increasing in magnitude over recent years. One such threat is from what he dubs the food bubble economy. As populations rise, demand for grain also rises. In an effort to meet demand, many countries are pumping aquifers overtime to grow more food. At this rate, the earth’s major water reservoirs are being depleted. Frank Rijsberman, from the Sri Lanka-based International Water Management Institute, warned in 2003 that if current trends continued, the livelihoods of one-third of the world’s population could be affected by water scarcity by 2025: “We could be facing annual losses equivalent to the entire grain crops of India and the United States combined.” To put this in perspective, an Economist article estimates that India and America contribute 30% of globally consumed cereals. A loss of that proportion will have devastating consequences for the future, especially if population is expected to hit 7 billion.

These developments, along with several others, raise serious concerns, but the action to counteract unsustainable practices has been haphazard, at best. Some looked to the recent Copenhagen climate change conference for hope; however, the nations involved have done little to assume a more proactive role. On the contrary, there are still no specific limits set for emissions beyond that which the countries involved volunteered. Carbon markets, which were central to the Kyoto Protocol, are at risk of collapse as banks and investors are steadily beginning to pull out due to this lack of commitment on carbon emissions. This threatens to undermine the entire initiative set forth in the Kyoto Protocol, which is not due to expire until 2012.

World leaders are aware of these communal threats to the world’s livelihood, but they are also confronted with a myriad of issues in their own nations. Government positions are at stake. Elections are due for many countries in 2012 and leaders like Obama are working overtime to turn the polls in their favor. With issues such as healthcare and the Iraq invasion on the table, Obama’s efforts are elsewhere. The same is true across the globe; climate change seems to be constantly pushed back as an issue to be dealt with by later generations. However, time is running out.

As global citizens in a world that is increasingly interconnected, we must do our part even if our governments continue to procrastinate. Central to democracy is the voice of the people, and as citizens, it is our duty to our offspring to take charge when our governments won’t. Raising awareness means chipping slowly at this melting iceberg; perhaps it is time for real action within our lifetimes. We are already feeling the effects of climate change. We must be proactive rather than reactive and push for the change we want to see in our world.

Matthew Escano is a 5th year student at University of Toronto and is double majoring in Political Science and Anthropology